Fourth quarter US pork export forecast slows as Chinese import tariffs rise • Farm Policy News



In his monthly Outlook for Livestock, Dairy and Poultry USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) report last week said that “Pork exports in October lower than expected—About £ 541 million — incentivized a reduction of 30 million pounds from the fourth quarter export forecast. The revised forecast is 1.8 billion pounds. Strong October exports to Mexico and other Latin American countries only partially compensated low shipments to Asia.

Government of Japan data indicates that North American pork – exported from the United States, Canada, and Mexico – all lost market share to the European Union (i.e. Spain and Denmark) in October.

ERS noted that, “Total U.S. Exports for 2021, incorporating the new fourth quarter forecast, is expected to be around £ 7.2 billion, almost 2% less than shipments in 2020.

Global Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Report December 9, 2021. Secretary’s Briefing – Interagency Committee Forecasts on Commodity Estimates.

“The list of the top 10 export destinations in October in the table below represents 93% of the month’s shipments. “

Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook: December 2021, LDP-M-330, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, December 15, 2021.

Meanwhile, Reuters News reported last week that,

China will increase import tariffs on most pork products next year, the finance ministry said on Wednesday, after the world’s largest producer quickly increased domestic production and reduced import requirements.

“The tariffs of the most favored nations will amount to 12% on January 1, from 8% currently, according to a ministry statement.

“China has lowered tariffs on frozen pork in 2020 from 12% to 8% as the country faced soaring domestic meat pricess in the aftermath of a devastating epidemic.

The Reuters article adds that “the higher rates even slower imports major exporters such as United States and Spain who have already strongly reduced in recent months. “



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